ABSTRACT
Background: The highly contagious Co rona vi rus d isease (COVID-19) pandemic affected nearly all nations across the world. It was emerged as most swiftly affected disease across the world and more than 2934 lakhs population suffered in four months of the time period as on date April 26, 2020. Its first epicenter was at Wuhan city of China during the month of December 2019. Currently, the most affected people and new epicenter of Coronavirus is at the United States of America (USA). Various nation’s administration including the India government called for the regional and local lockdown. We predicted the confirmed COVID-19 cases for next May-2020 month, map the magnitude of COVID-19 disease for Indian states and model the paucity of COVID-19 disease with statistical confirmatory data analysis model for declining rate for the cases represented for the Indian proportion of population. Method: The ARIMA model used to predict for next short-term cases, based moving average of past confirmed cases. The restriction of COVID-19 pandemic disease analyzed with predicted cases for month May 2020 data at 95 percent confidence is more than 2.5 lakh cases. Results: The confirmatory data analysis model for the time estimation for the paucity of cases it takes in between six to eighteen months of time frame. The Confirmatory model which considers recovery rate, social, economic and government policy. To complete recovery from the COVID-19 cases it takes on an average more than next ten months. Conclusion: The disease impacts also depend upon administrative and local people support for self-quarantine and other measures. The India nation Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on more than 17% of its agriculture production, due to longer affect of the disease and extended lockdown period it will be severely affected. However, all the economic activities with full of its intensity takes-up after complete paucity of COVID-19 disease spread. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; Lockdown; GDP; Nobel-Corona; Confirmatory data model